The NDIA’s participant numbers for Inner Eastern Melbourne can be split into a first 12months of above average volumes and a final 9 months of below average volumes. Inner Eastern Melbourne’s numbers also peak relatively late, reaching a top of +59% above average volumes in it’s fourth quarter from launch in July-September of 2018 (Q9).
From the +59% peak, Inner Eastern Melbourne then follows with a quarter at -16% below average and then 6 months stable at -52% below average to finish the contract in June 2019. Given the service period of the contract is less than 2 years, the NDIA’s participant numbers give a fairly clear operational profile. The chosen Inner Eastern Melbourne LAC Partner will ramp up over the first 12 months and ramp down over the last 9 months. While the switch from peak (+59%) to the ramp down (starting the next quarter at -16%) is not the easiest, it is better than the wild ups and downs of other regions across Victoria and nationally.
If the NDIA chooses to continue to outsource Local Area Coordination after June 2019, the successful LAC Partner may be in a good position to renew the contract. The NDIA has likely put higher volumes in the first year as part of establishing the NDIS in Inner Eastern Melbourne. The first 12 months clearly raise the average, while the last 9 months clearly lower the average.
Looking out beyond June 2019, participant numbers may be closer to the average of the last 9 months. This means that while the chosen LAC Partner will be shrinking it’s service in the last 9 months, this may not lead to closing at the end of the contract. Instead, these last 9 months may be more appropriate for the number of participants going forward, making the successful LAC Partner’s last 9 months a time when it retools its service for the ‘new normal’.
For participants, the two periods (higher front 12 months, lower back 9 months) this might be seen as two periods of relative stability with a bit of an awkward switch from high to low. The more stable, the easier for the successful LAC Partner to develop their systems and staff to deliver high quality service.
This analysis is provided for CareNavigator.com.au by The Healthy Organisation
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